Donald Trump’s name wasn’t on Canada’s ballots, but he may have been the night’s biggest loser. In a historic political turnaround, Mark Carney revived the struggling Liberal Party by campaigning against Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, ultimately defeating Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Back in January, Poilievre had a commanding lead. With Justin Trudeau deeply unpopular, the Conservative slogan “Canada is broken” had resonated. Poilievre promised sweeping reforms: axing the carbon tax, defunding the CBC, and cutting red tape. Victory seemed inevitable—until Trump changed the equation.
The former U.S. president began threatening to annex Canada, calling Trudeau a “governor” and hinting at making Canada the 51st state. The rhetoric unsettled Canadians, and Liberals quickly replaced Trudeau with Carney, a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor. The switch was a turning point.
Carney formed a pragmatic alliance with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a former Trump ally turned nationalist who warned against U.S. aggression. Their cooperative approach resonated in Ontario, Canada’s industrial hub. Pollster Frank Graves noted a massive voter shift: “8 million voters moved to the Liberals in six weeks. That’s not casual—it was a recoil from Trump 2.0.”
Poilievre’s strategy—ignoring Trump and attacking Carney’s credentials—backfired. His failure to unite moderates and his MAGA-influenced tone alienated many, especially progressives who shifted from the NDP and Bloc Québécois to the Liberals. Though Poilievre painted Carney as “sneaky” and similar to Trudeau, Carney’s calm competence won over a nervous electorate.
Carney has promised to boost government spending to counter economic threats from the U.S. His moderate image helped build a broad coalition, turning the race from a referendum on taxes to a defense of Canadian sovereignty.
When Trump urged Canadians to become the “51st state” on election day, it backfired dramatically. Canadians rejected the notion—and handed Carney a mandate to protect the nation’s independence.
